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Crypto Derivatives 24 September 2024

Block Scholes -Bl

Keep up with the latest in crypto market commentary as we share the insights from our institutional research partners.

In this edition, we share the latest crypto derivatives weekly from Block Scholes.

Following the cut in the Fed funds interest rate on September 18, 2024 we have seen an increase in spot prices for both major coins and an overall positive sentiment in the derivatives markets. The futures implied yields term structure was largely inverted over the last week, with yields showing high levels for the short term. However, the curve has now disinverted, having returned to similar levels as of last week. Perp swaps funding rates have fully recovered for both tokens, after a long period of stagnant negative rates. While ATM implied volatility levels have been on a slight decline for both BTC and ETH options, skews have been on the rise across all tenors, indicating a general increase in preference towards calls, adding to the evidence of a growing bullish sentiment in derivatives markets after the interest rate cut.

ATM Implied Volatility, 1-Month Tenor

Fig1 OKX Currency-Combined-1M-ATM-VOL-ETH

BTC Options

Fig2 BTC SVI Vol term structure

BTC SVI ATM Implied Volatility

Fig3 OKX BTC SVI ATM volatility

Implied volatility has overall been on the decline across the term structure.

BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal

Fig4 OKX BTC SVI PC skew

BTC skew has been rising for short-dated options

ETH Options

Fig5ETH SVI Vol term structure

ETH SVI ATM Implied Volatility

Fig6 OKX ETH SVI ATM volatility

Implied volatility has oscillated similarly to BTC’s and has fallen for short-tenor options.

ETH 25-Delta Risk Reversal

Fig7 OKX ETH SVI PC skew

ETH’s skews have increased significantly after the interest rate cut

Market Composite Volatility Surface

Fig8 okx snap BTC SMILES.moneyness
Fig9 okx snap ETH SMILES.moneyness

Listed Expiry Volatility Smiles

Fig10 BTC BTC-25OCT24 Listed Expiry
Fig11 ETH ETH-25OCT24 Listed Expiry

Constant Maturity Volatility Smiles

Fig12 BTC-SVI Constant Maturity
Fig 13ETH-SVI Constant Maturity

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Disclaimer
This content is provided for informational purposes only and may cover products that are not available in your region. It is not intended to provide (i) investment advice or an investment recommendation; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold digital assets, or (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professional for questions about your specific circumstances. Information (including market data and statistical information, if any) appearing in this post is for general information purposes only. While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this data and graphs, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors of fact or omission expressed herein. Both OKX Web3 Wallet and OKX NFT Marketplace are subject to separate terms of service at www.okx.com.
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